I was trying to think of a way to handicap today's race card at Santa Anita and still write about it. It's hard because I don't know what odds are yet and all that. So I figured I would just blog about it and update as I go. Gotta run to the track and get these picks in, I will also explain the format of the competition I am doing later.
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Alright I’m back and just in the nick of time, here’s how
this works. I am in a handicapping competition at a local track. You pick a
single horse for each race, the idea is you are placing a $20 “across the board”
wager. (That is a Win Bet, Show Bet, and Place Bet) I’ll mirror what I picked
on here with some extra bets and we’ll keep track along the way.
Here we go, about 15 minutes to the first race at Santa
Anita.
Race 1: #1 Misdeed, hopefully will get odds in the 5-1 range with a small chance to win, likely place.
This race only has a 5 horse field, with two favorites. One thing you have to realize with making these across the board wagers in advance is that you have to predict the odds. This isn't sports betting where odds are locked in. Misdeed is actually probably the 3rd favorite horse in here, but because the field is so small and the other two horses such huge favorites, even a win wont generate much of a return. My idea here is Misdeed finishes 3rd with an ok payoff which would still be better than a better horse taking 2nd(win both the place and show bets). However, if Misdeed can manage a small upset it would make for a nice start to the competition.
2nd Place : Misdeed
Wager $20 Across the Board.
Win: $84
Hot Damn. 6-1 odds
Races like this make me think I know what the hell I am doing sometimes. Misdeed stumbled a little outta the gate but it wouldn't have made a difference. Rode the inside the whole way and had a nice ride, predictably 2nd best.
Just an example why picking the favorite isn't always best, the winner across the board would pay $77 on $20.
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Race 2: #4 Drift King
Here is another example of taking a horse that is probably 2
nd best,
the clear favorite likely being Mr. Bossy Pants. However, while Mr. Bossy Pants will likely be
favorite because he has raced against much more difficult competition in the
past, the fact that the trainers have dropped him down to this Claiming $25k
race worries me slightly. Drift King is also dropping in class, and was beaten
by Mr. Bossy Pants last time out. Pretty good odds he will hit the board here,
but I can’t say how high. Again, hoping
for something in that 5-1 odds range.
2nd Place: Drift King
Wager $20 Across the Board
Win: $62
I didn’t get the odds I was expecting as Drift King went off as almost the
favorite at 5-2. He got necked out by, you guessed it, Mr. Bossy Pants who went
off the favorite at 2-1. Can't be upset as the race played out how I wanted. And because I threw down $4 on an exacta box that returned $17.20. Not a bad little hit.
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Race 3: #2 Red Man Run
This is a small time race compared to the two I just saw, a $20k Maiden Claimer
that honestly is full of horses best described as “blah”. Red Man Run finished 3
rd against a
similar field last time out, but this race is a crap shoot. Good chance Red Man
Run hits the board but I am not sure at what price.
2nd Place: Red Man Run
Wager: $20 Across the board
Win: $94
Got MUCH better odds than I was hoping at 5-1, plus I got another 2nd
place, overall I am very pleased with this.
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Race #4: He’s had Enough
Huge favorite in this race is Flashback, likely winner, but even more likely is
how overbet this horse will be due to a huge win last time out. He’s had Enough is next best and I think it
has a chance to actually win. The problem with this race is there is 4 horses
in the field, that’s it. So there aren’t huge odds anywhere, just hope I don’t
pick the one horse not in the money…
3rd Place: He's Had Enough
Wager $20 Across the board
Win: $0
Forgot to mention because it was a 4 horse field there were no "show" bets. I got nothing.
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Race #5: Magnificent Shirl
Likely the favorite, but I am going with it anyway. Race is filled with a lot
of horses I don’t see better so there doesn’t seem to be any other way to go.
1st Place: Magnificent Shirl
Wager: $20 Across the Board
Win: $122
Hung back early and came back to win comfortably.
Thats the end of my live stuff for now, I will update later on how the rest of the card went, but so far, so good.
