Time for a big night in the NHL. I'll actually be watching the high school games, but sadly they don't put odds out for those games. I guess the pros will have to do. Here are today's picks:
Florida at Washington (-160)
Neither team is off to a great start but the Capitals are starting to turn things around. Plus they are on home ice.
Total Bet: $300
Potential Win: $188
Winnipeg at Tampa Bay (-150)
Both teams are under .500 but the Lightning do know how to put the puck in the net. They have a solid division record so far as well.
Total Bet: $300
Potential Win: $200
Edmonton at Detroit (-175)
There is a ton of offensive talent in this game. Could be a lot of pretty goals scored. Again the Red Wings are just too good on their home ice.
Total Bet: $300
Potential Win: $171
St. Louis (-115) at Phoenix
This is the only road team I'm taking. The Blues bring a good mix of finesse and physicality which you need to pull out a road win.
Total Bet: $300
Potential Win: $261
Dallas at Los Angeles (-175)
The Kings are hot right now and they are just too good at home. That may be a theme to some of these bets.
Total Bet: $300
Potential Win: $171
Thursday, March 7, 2013
Tuesday, March 5, 2013
NHL and NCAA Basketball
Haven't made a bet in quite a while. Figured it was time to get back at it. Here are my picks for today:
Tampa Bay (+105) at New Jersey
Both teams are struggling right now but I think Tampa Bay finds a way to pull out the road win. They have too much talent up front to be shut down.
Total Bet: $300
Potential Win: $315
Detroit (-165) vs. Colorado
Detroit is just too good at home. Colorado is up and coming but Detroit is still the far superior team in this one.
Total Bet: $300
Potential Win: $182
Chicago (-180) vs. Minnesota
The Blackhawks are on a record setting run and I see no reason that the streak will end tonight. The Wild are just too unpredictable.
Total Bet: $400
Potential Win: $222
I'm not going to try and breakdown the basketball games, they just looked intriguing. I'm going with both ranked teams on the road. We'll see what happens.
Marquette (-7) @ Rutgers
Total Bet: $200
Potential Win: $182
Memphis (-3) at UTEP
Total Bet: $200
Potential Win: $182
Tampa Bay (+105) at New Jersey
Both teams are struggling right now but I think Tampa Bay finds a way to pull out the road win. They have too much talent up front to be shut down.
Total Bet: $300
Potential Win: $315
Detroit (-165) vs. Colorado
Detroit is just too good at home. Colorado is up and coming but Detroit is still the far superior team in this one.
Total Bet: $300
Potential Win: $182
Chicago (-180) vs. Minnesota
The Blackhawks are on a record setting run and I see no reason that the streak will end tonight. The Wild are just too unpredictable.
Total Bet: $400
Potential Win: $222
I'm not going to try and breakdown the basketball games, they just looked intriguing. I'm going with both ranked teams on the road. We'll see what happens.
Marquette (-7) @ Rutgers
Total Bet: $200
Potential Win: $182
Memphis (-3) at UTEP
Total Bet: $200
Potential Win: $182
Monday, February 11, 2013
Back on Track...Or Not
February 2nd at Santa Anita
Out of 10 races only 6 of my picks finished in the money, however a couple of those were nice 4-1 and 5-1 plays that returned nicely. I finished up $374 on the day.
February 9th at Gulfstream Park
I have never done well when handicapping Gulfstream Park. They usually have more turf races on the card than some other tracks, and historically (for reasons I have not specifically identified) I'm just not a good turf race handicapper. When throwing actual money at races I usually stay on the dirt. Out of 12 races I only had 5 finish in the money, and lost $69. All things considered the loss was minimal thanks to my 9-1 longshot that brought in over $300. But when you bleed away $60 a race for 8 races, it's just not going to be a good day.
Next Week at Golden Gate Fields
Tuesday, February 5, 2013
NHL Tuesday
Doing this from my phone at school, I'll keep it short.
New York at New Jersey UNDER 5 (-125)
Two future hall of fame goalies means scoring will be at a premium.
Total Bet: $200
Potential Win: $160
Pittsburgh (-140) at New York Islanders
The Penguins are starting to click and will be a factor all season.
Total Bet: $200
Potential Win: $143
Nashville at St. Louis (-175)
The Blues are very good at home.
Total Bet: $200
Potential Win: $114
Chicago (even) at San Jose
They are on the road but Chicago is one of the best offensive teams in the league. Should be a high scoring game.
Total Bet: $200
Potential Win: $200
New York at New Jersey UNDER 5 (-125)
Two future hall of fame goalies means scoring will be at a premium.
Total Bet: $200
Potential Win: $160
Pittsburgh (-140) at New York Islanders
The Penguins are starting to click and will be a factor all season.
Total Bet: $200
Potential Win: $143
Nashville at St. Louis (-175)
The Blues are very good at home.
Total Bet: $200
Potential Win: $114
Chicago (even) at San Jose
They are on the road but Chicago is one of the best offensive teams in the league. Should be a high scoring game.
Total Bet: $200
Potential Win: $200
Saturday, February 2, 2013
Live Blog Today
I was trying to think of a way to handicap today's race card at Santa Anita and still write about it. It's hard because I don't know what odds are yet and all that. So I figured I would just blog about it and update as I go. Gotta run to the track and get these picks in, I will also explain the format of the competition I am doing later.
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Race 1: #1 Misdeed, hopefully will get odds in the 5-1 range with a small chance to win, likely place.
This race only has a 5 horse field, with two favorites. One thing you have to realize with making these across the board wagers in advance is that you have to predict the odds. This isn't sports betting where odds are locked in. Misdeed is actually probably the 3rd favorite horse in here, but because the field is so small and the other two horses such huge favorites, even a win wont generate much of a return. My idea here is Misdeed finishes 3rd with an ok payoff which would still be better than a better horse taking 2nd(win both the place and show bets). However, if Misdeed can manage a small upset it would make for a nice start to the competition.
2nd Place : Misdeed
Wager $20 Across the Board.
Win: $84
Hot Damn. 6-1 odds
Races like this make me think I know what the hell I am doing sometimes. Misdeed stumbled a little outta the gate but it wouldn't have made a difference. Rode the inside the whole way and had a nice ride, predictably 2nd best.
Just an example why picking the favorite isn't always best, the winner across the board would pay $77 on $20.
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Alright I’m back and just in the nick of time, here’s how
this works. I am in a handicapping competition at a local track. You pick a
single horse for each race, the idea is you are placing a $20 “across the board”
wager. (That is a Win Bet, Show Bet, and Place Bet) I’ll mirror what I picked
on here with some extra bets and we’ll keep track along the way.
Here we go, about 15 minutes to the first race at Santa
Anita.
Race 1: #1 Misdeed, hopefully will get odds in the 5-1 range with a small chance to win, likely place.
This race only has a 5 horse field, with two favorites. One thing you have to realize with making these across the board wagers in advance is that you have to predict the odds. This isn't sports betting where odds are locked in. Misdeed is actually probably the 3rd favorite horse in here, but because the field is so small and the other two horses such huge favorites, even a win wont generate much of a return. My idea here is Misdeed finishes 3rd with an ok payoff which would still be better than a better horse taking 2nd(win both the place and show bets). However, if Misdeed can manage a small upset it would make for a nice start to the competition.
2nd Place : Misdeed
Wager $20 Across the Board.
Win: $84
Hot Damn. 6-1 odds
Races like this make me think I know what the hell I am doing sometimes. Misdeed stumbled a little outta the gate but it wouldn't have made a difference. Rode the inside the whole way and had a nice ride, predictably 2nd best.
Just an example why picking the favorite isn't always best, the winner across the board would pay $77 on $20.
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Race 2: #4 Drift King
Here is another example of taking a horse that is probably 2nd best, the clear favorite likely being Mr. Bossy Pants. However, while Mr. Bossy Pants will likely be favorite because he has raced against much more difficult competition in the past, the fact that the trainers have dropped him down to this Claiming $25k race worries me slightly. Drift King is also dropping in class, and was beaten by Mr. Bossy Pants last time out. Pretty good odds he will hit the board here, but I can’t say how high. Again, hoping for something in that 5-1 odds range.
Here is another example of taking a horse that is probably 2nd best, the clear favorite likely being Mr. Bossy Pants. However, while Mr. Bossy Pants will likely be favorite because he has raced against much more difficult competition in the past, the fact that the trainers have dropped him down to this Claiming $25k race worries me slightly. Drift King is also dropping in class, and was beaten by Mr. Bossy Pants last time out. Pretty good odds he will hit the board here, but I can’t say how high. Again, hoping for something in that 5-1 odds range.
2nd Place: Drift King
Wager $20 Across the Board
Win: $62
I didn’t get the odds I was expecting as Drift King went off as almost the favorite at 5-2. He got necked out by, you guessed it, Mr. Bossy Pants who went off the favorite at 2-1. Can't be upset as the race played out how I wanted. And because I threw down $4 on an exacta box that returned $17.20. Not a bad little hit.
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Wager $20 Across the Board
Win: $62
I didn’t get the odds I was expecting as Drift King went off as almost the favorite at 5-2. He got necked out by, you guessed it, Mr. Bossy Pants who went off the favorite at 2-1. Can't be upset as the race played out how I wanted. And because I threw down $4 on an exacta box that returned $17.20. Not a bad little hit.
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Race 3: #2 Red Man Run
This is a small time race compared to the two I just saw, a $20k Maiden Claimer that honestly is full of horses best described as “blah”. Red Man Run finished 3rd against a similar field last time out, but this race is a crap shoot. Good chance Red Man Run hits the board but I am not sure at what price.
This is a small time race compared to the two I just saw, a $20k Maiden Claimer that honestly is full of horses best described as “blah”. Red Man Run finished 3rd against a similar field last time out, but this race is a crap shoot. Good chance Red Man Run hits the board but I am not sure at what price.
2nd Place: Red Man Run
Wager: $20 Across the board
Win: $94
Got MUCH better odds than I was hoping at 5-1, plus I got another 2nd place, overall I am very pleased with this.
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Wager: $20 Across the board
Win: $94
Got MUCH better odds than I was hoping at 5-1, plus I got another 2nd place, overall I am very pleased with this.
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Race #4: He’s had Enough
Huge favorite in this race is Flashback, likely winner, but even more likely is how overbet this horse will be due to a huge win last time out. He’s had Enough is next best and I think it has a chance to actually win. The problem with this race is there is 4 horses in the field, that’s it. So there aren’t huge odds anywhere, just hope I don’t pick the one horse not in the money…
3rd Place: He's Had Enough
Wager $20 Across the board
Win: $0
Forgot to mention because it was a 4 horse field there were no "show" bets. I got nothing.
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Huge favorite in this race is Flashback, likely winner, but even more likely is how overbet this horse will be due to a huge win last time out. He’s had Enough is next best and I think it has a chance to actually win. The problem with this race is there is 4 horses in the field, that’s it. So there aren’t huge odds anywhere, just hope I don’t pick the one horse not in the money…
3rd Place: He's Had Enough
Wager $20 Across the board
Win: $0
Forgot to mention because it was a 4 horse field there were no "show" bets. I got nothing.
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Race #5: Magnificent Shirl
Likely the favorite, but I am going with it anyway. Race is filled with a lot of horses I don’t see better so there doesn’t seem to be any other way to go.
1st Place: Magnificent Shirl
Wager: $20 Across the Board
Win: $122
Hung back early and came back to win comfortably.
Likely the favorite, but I am going with it anyway. Race is filled with a lot of horses I don’t see better so there doesn’t seem to be any other way to go.
1st Place: Magnificent Shirl
Wager: $20 Across the Board
Win: $122
Hung back early and came back to win comfortably.
Thats the end of my live stuff for now, I will update later on how the rest of the card went, but so far, so good.
Wednesday, January 30, 2013
Soccer and Hockey
I'm going to try another parlay today, this time with some soccer and hockey. Not much analysis needed so I'll keep it short and sweet.
Copa del Rey
Barcelona (+115) at Real Madrid - The two biggest Spanish clubs face off in the first leg of the Copa semifinals. Barca is on the road, but look to have the much healthier lineup for today. These games are always exciting because they feature several of the top players in the world.
AND
Chicago (-135) at Minnesota - The Wild managed to squeak by Columbus last night while the Blackhawks were able to rest and watch. They might be the best team in hockey right now. Being favored on the road is tricky, but they will keep their hot start to the season alive.
Total Bet: $400
Potential Win: $1097
Copa del Rey
Barcelona (+115) at Real Madrid - The two biggest Spanish clubs face off in the first leg of the Copa semifinals. Barca is on the road, but look to have the much healthier lineup for today. These games are always exciting because they feature several of the top players in the world.
AND
Chicago (-135) at Minnesota - The Wild managed to squeak by Columbus last night while the Blackhawks were able to rest and watch. They might be the best team in hockey right now. Being favored on the road is tricky, but they will keep their hot start to the season alive.
Total Bet: $400
Potential Win: $1097
Tuesday, January 29, 2013
NHL Parlay
I'm not sure why but I'm going to try a 3-way parlay again. I'm going with 3 home teams that are all fairly big favorites. I'm not really going out on a limb, but that is why I'm putting them together in a parlay. Don't have time for much analysis so I'll make it quick.
Minnesota (-190) vs. Columbus - The Wild will bounce back against a bad team who had to travel the day of the game.
AND
Tampa Bay (-170) vs. Florida - The Lightning have the offensive potential to make this game a blowout.
AND
Detroit (-160) vs. Dallas - The Red Wings are one of the best home teams in sports over the last decade. The Stars lost to Columbus last night.
Total Bet: $400
Potential Win: $1175
Minnesota (-190) vs. Columbus - The Wild will bounce back against a bad team who had to travel the day of the game.
AND
Tampa Bay (-170) vs. Florida - The Lightning have the offensive potential to make this game a blowout.
AND
Detroit (-160) vs. Dallas - The Red Wings are one of the best home teams in sports over the last decade. The Stars lost to Columbus last night.
Total Bet: $400
Potential Win: $1175
Return to Winning Ways
Things have not been going well for me recently in the betting department. I see a good opportunity in tonight's Minnesota Wild matchup at home against Columbus to break that losing skid.
MN Wild (+155) -1.5
Columbus did get a victory at home last night against Dallas, but weren't able to fly to Minnesota after the game due to fog. They arrived in MN late morning which means they won't get a morning skate in, however that likely isn't a huge factor. Don't let the recent good showings by the Blue Jackets fool you, they aren't good. The Wild at home, with a couple days rest; verses a Columbus team playing back to backs and flying in day of. Obviously the straight up win is a more likely outcome but at -190 I just don't see any value in it, especially when I think the Wild will take the lead early and not look back. But I am prepared to be crossing fingers hoping for a possible empty netter in order to cover.
Bet: $200
Possible Win: $510
MN Wild (+155) -1.5
Columbus did get a victory at home last night against Dallas, but weren't able to fly to Minnesota after the game due to fog. They arrived in MN late morning which means they won't get a morning skate in, however that likely isn't a huge factor. Don't let the recent good showings by the Blue Jackets fool you, they aren't good. The Wild at home, with a couple days rest; verses a Columbus team playing back to backs and flying in day of. Obviously the straight up win is a more likely outcome but at -190 I just don't see any value in it, especially when I think the Wild will take the lead early and not look back. But I am prepared to be crossing fingers hoping for a possible empty netter in order to cover.
Bet: $200
Possible Win: $510
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