Mock Draft Mockery

Ahh, springtime. The snow is melting, the sun is shining, and it’s a beautiful day outside. But somewhere in a dimly lit room inside the confines of the ESPN campus, Mel Kiper and Todd McShay are hard at work. What is it that they are working on you ask? Why the Mock Draft of course. Every year around this time they start popping up all over. So called “experts” post their mock drafts on various blogs and websites. Kiper and McShay are lucky enough to get paid by ESPN to do theirs. Take a minute to sit back and think about the mock draft process.

Mock drafts for 2011 began in 2010. And I don't mean late 2010, I mean in April. Like right after the 2010 draft ended. How ridiculous is that? Why not spend a few days reviewing the draft that just took place instead of planning for the one that's 364 days away. Don't get me wrong, ESPN has plenty of people employed to review the NFL draft, I'm not suggesting more coverage of it. But if McShay's work is done after the draft, then give him a month off. He probably deserves it.

But here's the real problem, nobody has any idea how the football season will play out. That goes for college and the NFL. Not only does he try and predict who goes where, but he tries to predict what team will be picking where. His top 5 picks for 2011 were:

1. Buffalo (too easy, they're always terrible)
2. St. Louis (blew it on the last game of the season and missed the playoffs)
3. Kansas City (hell of a turnaround and actually hosted a playoff game)
4. Tampa Bay (went 10-6 and missed the playoffs on tiebreakers)
5. Cleveland (they play in a tough division, but they did beat the Patriots)

Now let's see where those teams will actually be drafting this year:

Buffalo: 3rd
St. Louis: 14th
Kansas City: 21st
Tampa Bay: 20th
Cleveland: 6th

How about his top 5 picks for 2011 player wise:

Andrew Luck, Stanford
Marcell Dareus, Alabama
Anthony Castonzo, Boston College
Adrian Clayborn, Iowa
Cameron Heyward, Ohio State

And again let's see where these players are ranked now:

Andrew Luck - 2012 #1 overall pick, going back to Stanford
Marcell Dareus - 7th overall, #2 DT
Anthony Castonzo - 25th overall, #3 OT
Adrian Clayborn - 15th overall, #3 DE
Cameron Heyward - 30th overall, #8 DE

(rankings are based on Scout Inc.'s Top 32 on 2/15/11)

It's interesting to see how things change over the course of 10 months. Only 1 of the early top 5 players is in the current top 10. And he's not even regarded as the best player at his position. And the supposed #1 overall isn't even going to the NFL. Perhaps they should wait a few months before they start mocking it up.

Now I must admit that I actually like Todd McShay. I think he is one of the better evaluators of the draft and once the draft actually rolls around I like reading his stuff. This is more of a shot at ESPN. We don't need mock draft 6.0 or whatever number they get to this year. Just focus on ranking the players by their positions and then you can start putting together a real mock draft sometime after the combine and all the pro days. Although don't' get me started on the combine. I'm still waiting for an explanation on how a guy's season stats get overlooked because he looks good in shorts and a t shirt. (See: Troy Williamson)