Soccer and Hockey

I'm going to try another parlay today, this time with some soccer and hockey. Not much analysis needed so I'll keep it short and sweet.

Copa del Rey
Barcelona (+115) at Real Madrid - The two biggest Spanish clubs face off in the first leg of the Copa semifinals. Barca is on the road, but look to have the much healthier lineup for today. These games are always exciting because they feature several of the top players in the world.

AND

Chicago (-135) at Minnesota - The Wild managed to squeak by Columbus last night while the Blackhawks were able to rest and watch. They might be the best team in hockey right now. Being favored on the road is tricky, but they will keep their hot start to the season alive.

Total Bet: $400
Potential Win: $1097

NHL Parlay

I'm not sure why but I'm going to try a 3-way parlay again. I'm going with 3 home teams that are all fairly big favorites. I'm not really going out on a limb, but that is why I'm putting them together in a parlay. Don't have time for much analysis so I'll make it quick.

Minnesota (-190) vs. Columbus - The Wild will bounce back against a bad team who had to travel the day of the game.

AND

Tampa Bay (-170) vs. Florida - The Lightning have the offensive potential to make this game a blowout.

AND

Detroit (-160) vs. Dallas - The Red Wings are one of the best home teams in sports over the last decade. The Stars lost to Columbus last night.


Total Bet: $400
Potential Win: $1175

Return to Winning Ways

Things have not been going well for me recently in the betting department. I see a good opportunity in tonight's Minnesota Wild matchup at home against Columbus to break that losing skid.

MN Wild (+155) -1.5

Columbus did get a victory at home last night against Dallas, but weren't able to fly to Minnesota after the game due to fog.  They arrived in MN late morning which means they won't get a morning skate in, however that likely isn't a huge factor.  Don't let the recent good showings by the Blue Jackets fool you, they aren't good.  The Wild at home, with a couple days rest; verses a Columbus team playing back to backs and flying in day of. Obviously the straight up win is a more likely outcome but at -190 I just don't see any value in it, especially when I think the Wild will take the lead early and not look back. But I am prepared to be crossing fingers hoping for a possible empty netter in order to cover.

Bet: $200
Possible Win: $510

Don't Try This At Home

Alright I have to draw this up pretty quick because the match starts in about 30 minutes from the writing of this so try and follow along.  Haven't had much time to look at sports betting in the past week as I gear up what I consider the beginning of horse racing season next weekend. So here goes nothing.

Exeter City WIN (-105) over Torquay United

I know what you are thinking.......never heard of these squads. And honestly, unless you are reading this from the U.K., or play ungodly amounts of FIFA '13 (raises hand), you wouldn't know these are two teams in the English League 2. That is 3 steps BELOW the Premier League.  I do follow roughly enough to know that Torquay is not doing well, Exeter scores and are non loosers in their last 5.  They get their leading scorer back from suspension, I'm throwing in $500.


BET: $500
Potential Win: $476

P.S. This wasn't available where we normally bet, I looked at all the major places taking action on this game and went with the average line which was 1.95. (-105 in the american form, we hate decimal systems)

UFC 6 on FOX Bets

I thoroughly enjoy the UFC and while I consider myself a fan, I've still got a long way to go when it comes to handicapping fights. I'm going to throw $50 on each fight and see how we end up in the end.

Eric Koch -200 over Ricardo Lamas
Featherweights get very little attention, but this should be a very entertaining fight. Koch is an up and comer in the weight class, look for him to be able to end this fight

Bet: $50
Potential win: $25

Donald Cerrone +120 over Anthony Pettis
They say to stay away from emotion when betting, but it is very difficult to do in this fight. I'm a fan of The Cowboy Cerrone and I think he'll be able to last in this one. Pettis is a very dangerous fighter and usually doesn't go to the decision, but I think this will last all 3 rounds with Cerrone getting the decision.

Bet: $50
Potential win: $60

Quinton Jackson +260 over Glover Teixeira
Teixeira has only had 2 UFC fights, but ended them both in style. With that said, Jackson's ability on the ground and the huge odds make it hard to not take a chance on the underdog in this bout. He's a bit of a wild card for if he's gonna show up during the fight, I'm hoping for good things here.

Bet: $50
Potential win: $130

Demetrious Jackson -260 over John Dodson
Despite the odds, this should be a great matchup. Each fighter has great defenses against the other's strengths so I could see this title fight going the whole 5 rounds and that is the reason I am going with Jackson. His conditioning is impeccable and I look for him to retain his belt.

Bet: $50
Potential win: $19

Bankroll: $1050

Australian Open

Maybe I'm getting desperate but I'm going to call it being creative. Since this is one of the major tennis tournaments I'm going to make two different bets on it. One for the men's side, and one for the women's.

Friday Men's Semifinals

Roger Federer (+120) over Andy Murray

These are two of the top tennis players in the world right now, and Federer may be the best ever. This should be a very entertaining match. Murray is 10-9 against Federer, but has never beaten him in a Grand Slam match. Federer knows how to play big on the big stage so I'm going with the veteran.

Total Bet: $200
Potential Win: $240

Saturday Women's Final

Victoria Azarenka (-145) over Li Na

I can't say that I'm a huge women's tennis fan, but I will watch it occasionally if it is a big tournament. Na has the head-to-head advantage 5-4, but I'm going with the favorite on this one.

Total Bet: $200
Potential Win: $138

NCAA Basketball

Usually I stay far, far away from NCAA basketball until March Madness comes around, but looking at today's games I saw a few that stuck out to me and figured I'd try and make up the ground I've lost with a little bit of a crazy 3-way parlay. It may be fairly obvious by now, but I prefer 3-ways.

Butler +2.5 over LaSalle
This could be the bet that ruins the parlay, but it is too enticing to not take a chance on. This isn't the Butler team that went to the NCAA Championship game, but Brad Stevens is no slouch and has them playing extremely well as of late (13 game win streak). It looks like leading scorer Rontei Clarke won't be playing for the Bulldogs due to a sprained neck, but this isn't a 1 man team and should dispatch the Explorers on the road.

Duke -3 over Miami (FL)
It's hard to not like the #1 team in the nation to only have to cover 3 points. Yes, it is on the road and yes, this isn't your typical Hurricane's basketball team and yes, Ryan Kelly is still out with a bum foot. But with all that said, Duke comes to play and they rarely lose an ACC game. Look for Duke to jump out early and not look back.

Minnesota -9 over Northwestern
Typically I wouldn't be big on a 9 point spread, but I watched the first meeting between these two teams and the Gophers played absolutely horribly in the first half, they still won by 18 points. The Gophers are coming off of 2 consecutive Big 10 defeats, but even more of a reason for them to bounce back with a strong game against a very sub-par Wildcat squad.

Total bet: $150
Potential win: $900

Bankroll: $1250

More Hockey Bets

Last weekend was a little rough, looking to rebound with some weekly hockey bets. We're going to give the parlays a little break and stick to single game bets. Let's see if the new strategy will pay off.

Philadelphia (-105) at New Jersey

The Flyers are 0-2 right off the bat. They are hungry for a win and have way too much talent to not get it done tonight. I'm taking the Flyers.

Total Bet: $100
Potential Win: $95

Minnesota (-130) vs. Nashville

The Wild are looking good to start the season and had the day off yesterday. The Predators are coming off back-to-back shootout losses, including one late last night. I'm going with the home team off a day of rest and no travel.

Total Bet: $100
Potential Win: $77

San Jose at Edmonton OVER 5.5 Goals (+110)

This game features a lot of offensive talent and unproven goaltending. Both teams have potential superstars who can put up a lot of points. Should be an entertaining game.

Total Bet: $100
Potential Win: $110

Hockey Is Back...Football Is Still Around

Since the NHL is finally ready to drop the puck that means it is time to place some hockey bets. Apparently this is also an important weekend in the NFL so we can't just ignore that. Here are my picks for this weekend's action:

NFL Money Line Parlay

New England (-360) and Atlanta (+170)

I can't get a good read on the spreads for these games so I'm going with the money line. I think the Patriots will win comfortably. I just can't go against Brady at home. Nobody is giving the Falcons a chance to win this game. For some reason I am. I think Kaepernick is overrated, no way he repeats what he did last week. The Falcons offense has enough firepower to win this game. It may come down to a last second play like last week, but I have faith the Falcons will get it done.

Total Bet: $100
Potential Win: $245


NHL Parlay

Chicago (-105) and Carolina (-105) and Minnesota/Colorado Over 5 goals (-130)

Chicago underwhelmed last year and has too much talent to not make some noise this year. Carolina added another Staal and Semin and that should help them score some goals this year. Minnesota and Colorado is a pretty decent rivalry game that features a lot of young offensive talent. I expect a high scoring game to start the season.

Total Bet: $100
Potential Win: $574

NHL Grand Salami (Total Goals Scored in All NHL Games) UNDER 72

I have never seen this bet before but it is very intriguing. There may be some sloppy play to begin the season and I think most teams will play a safer and defensive style. That is why I am taking the under on 72 goals scored for the day.

Total Bet: $100
Potential Win: $91

That is it for this weekend, good luck on your plays.

Wagering Some Football and Futball

OK, so last week didn’t work out so well….or at all. As a result I WAS going to dial back the crazy just a little bit and place two separate wagers, but I just couldn’t help myself so I parlayed 3 together (again).

Manchester United WIN (-125)

First, an English Premier League matchup that I don’t think will be nearly as close as the odds are suggesting. Manchester United verses Liverpool at Old Trafford.  Man U will be without their marquee striker Rooney, but I don’t think it will hinder the Red Devils as much as betters think.  Robin Van Persie has 16 goals so far this year and I believe he tags on another one in this matchup. Finally, while Liverpool has been in good form recently, they haven’t won at Old Trafford in four years. Worried for a draw, but think Man U comes out on top 2-1.

Denver Broncos (-9) AND the over 44.5

I won’t give too much analysis on this game only because I don’t think it’s needed.  I think the Ravens are emotionally (and likely physically) spent from last week’s win over the Bengals, and they travel to Denver to play what I believe is the best team in football.  The Broncos have methodically beaten down opponents so consistently over the 2^nd half of the season that people hardly talk about it anymore. I think the over is a hands down lock, but a spread of 9 points is always a little bit to worry about, even with the expected beat down I think Manning will deliver on Saturday.

Wager $300
possible win: $1,668  

NFL Divisional Bet

After getting shut out the last two weeks, I've decided to simplify my bet and not get quite as crazy with it. I like both Denver & New England to win this week, but 9 point spreads are too big to mess around with in the playoffs. With that said, I'm going to go with a $300 2-way parlay:

Falcons -2.5

The Seahawks bandwagon seems to be doubling in size every week, but I just don't see the appeal. They are going up against a very good Atlanta team at home where the speed and skill of their offense is on display. Seattle's defense will be able to keep it close, but when I say close I mean within 2 touchdowns. Atlanta wins this game easily.

Packers M/L

If history has proved anything over the last few years, it's that you need a QB to win in the playoffs and because of that, I'm seeing good things for Green Bay. San Francisco is starting a rookie QB who can't throw very well, that doesn't equal victory. Aaron Rodgers has been here before and knows what it takes to get to the Super Bowl. I have great faith in the Packers to win this game.

Total bet: $300

Potential win: $910

Bankroll: $1400

UPDATE: A total loss. Packers looked completely overmatched and Falcons missed out by .5 point

Wildcard Bet

Alright, here goes nothing. There are a couple of large spreads that are very attractive bets in this NFL Wildcard week, so my decision was to parley the two into what will hopefully be a nice little score.

Minnesota +8

This line opened up at +9.5 which is huge for ANY NFL game, let alone one where the team beat their opponent last week. I know the game is at Lambeau, but the weather looks to be cold and I expect the Vikings to control most of the game with AP. The only worry with this is Christian Ponder is questionable, I expect him to play BUT if he doesn’t this bet could be ugly.  I still expect the Vikings to be within a touchdown in this game.

Indianapolis +7

I don’t expect this to be a high scoring game, and the Ravens have not looked anything like the playoff teams of the past.  The Baltimore defense will probably play inspired with the pending retirement of Ray Lewis, but I think Andrew Luck and the Colts will put up enough of a fight to stay within a touchdown. (My guess is lose by 3)

The Ponder question mark is the only reason why I’m not betting more in this situation.

Total Bet: $200
Potential Win: $514

UPDATE: In the time I wrote this the MN spread bumped up to +9.5 but I’ll still go with the +8. The recent news that Ponder has been downgraded to questionable likely means some large players are moving some BIG money onto the Packers to beat the spread.  

NFL Wildcard Bets

Missed out on a chance at decent money last week, I'll again throw my hat in the ring. I wanted to tie in the BCS National Championship game, but a 9.5 point spread is just too big when I'm leaning towards Alabama. Regardless I'm feeling a little more confident this time around, here's my $200 3-way parlay:

Houston -4.5 pts
The Texans will open up their offense and put away the Bengals early and easily in this matchup. I don't think Cincinnati will be able to keep up with Houston on either side of the ball. Highly confident in this game.

Colts/Ravens under 47 pts
Not as high on this pick, but I do think emotion plays a factor in this game. With Ray Lewis announcing his retirement following the season, Baltimore's defense comes to play and shuts down Andrew Luck. I don't see the Ravens offense putting up a lot of points, so I'm going with a low scoring affair.

Washington M/L
This is the big wildcard in the bet. I haven't been on the RGIII bandwagon all year, but I'm even more against the Russell Wilson experiment when he's playing outside of Seattle. The Redskins have the more talented team and I think they'll win this one and I'm punting the 3 points that the odds makers are offering.

Total bet: $200
Potential win: $1440

Bankroll: $1700

UPDATE: Looking good going into the final wild card game, then RGIII went down and any hope at a big payout went down the drain.