Time for a big night in the NHL. I'll actually be watching the high school games, but sadly they don't put odds out for those games. I guess the pros will have to do. Here are today's picks:
Florida at Washington (-160)
Neither team is off to a great start but the Capitals are starting to turn things around. Plus they are on home ice.
Total Bet: $300
Potential Win: $188
Winnipeg at Tampa Bay (-150)
Both teams are under .500 but the Lightning do know how to put the puck in the net. They have a solid division record so far as well.
Total Bet: $300
Potential Win: $200
Edmonton at Detroit (-175)
There is a ton of offensive talent in this game. Could be a lot of pretty goals scored. Again the Red Wings are just too good on their home ice.
Total Bet: $300
Potential Win: $171
St. Louis (-115) at Phoenix
This is the only road team I'm taking. The Blues bring a good mix of finesse and physicality which you need to pull out a road win.
Total Bet: $300
Potential Win: $261
Dallas at Los Angeles (-175)
The Kings are hot right now and they are just too good at home. That may be a theme to some of these bets.
Total Bet: $300
Potential Win: $171
Thursday, March 7, 2013
Tuesday, March 5, 2013
NHL and NCAA Basketball
Haven't made a bet in quite a while. Figured it was time to get back at it. Here are my picks for today:
Tampa Bay (+105) at New Jersey
Both teams are struggling right now but I think Tampa Bay finds a way to pull out the road win. They have too much talent up front to be shut down.
Total Bet: $300
Potential Win: $315
Detroit (-165) vs. Colorado
Detroit is just too good at home. Colorado is up and coming but Detroit is still the far superior team in this one.
Total Bet: $300
Potential Win: $182
Chicago (-180) vs. Minnesota
The Blackhawks are on a record setting run and I see no reason that the streak will end tonight. The Wild are just too unpredictable.
Total Bet: $400
Potential Win: $222
I'm not going to try and breakdown the basketball games, they just looked intriguing. I'm going with both ranked teams on the road. We'll see what happens.
Marquette (-7) @ Rutgers
Total Bet: $200
Potential Win: $182
Memphis (-3) at UTEP
Total Bet: $200
Potential Win: $182
Tampa Bay (+105) at New Jersey
Both teams are struggling right now but I think Tampa Bay finds a way to pull out the road win. They have too much talent up front to be shut down.
Total Bet: $300
Potential Win: $315
Detroit (-165) vs. Colorado
Detroit is just too good at home. Colorado is up and coming but Detroit is still the far superior team in this one.
Total Bet: $300
Potential Win: $182
Chicago (-180) vs. Minnesota
The Blackhawks are on a record setting run and I see no reason that the streak will end tonight. The Wild are just too unpredictable.
Total Bet: $400
Potential Win: $222
I'm not going to try and breakdown the basketball games, they just looked intriguing. I'm going with both ranked teams on the road. We'll see what happens.
Marquette (-7) @ Rutgers
Total Bet: $200
Potential Win: $182
Memphis (-3) at UTEP
Total Bet: $200
Potential Win: $182
Monday, February 11, 2013
Back on Track...Or Not
February 2nd at Santa Anita
Out of 10 races only 6 of my picks finished in the money, however a couple of those were nice 4-1 and 5-1 plays that returned nicely. I finished up $374 on the day.
February 9th at Gulfstream Park
I have never done well when handicapping Gulfstream Park. They usually have more turf races on the card than some other tracks, and historically (for reasons I have not specifically identified) I'm just not a good turf race handicapper. When throwing actual money at races I usually stay on the dirt. Out of 12 races I only had 5 finish in the money, and lost $69. All things considered the loss was minimal thanks to my 9-1 longshot that brought in over $300. But when you bleed away $60 a race for 8 races, it's just not going to be a good day.
Next Week at Golden Gate Fields
Tuesday, February 5, 2013
NHL Tuesday
Doing this from my phone at school, I'll keep it short.
New York at New Jersey UNDER 5 (-125)
Two future hall of fame goalies means scoring will be at a premium.
Total Bet: $200
Potential Win: $160
Pittsburgh (-140) at New York Islanders
The Penguins are starting to click and will be a factor all season.
Total Bet: $200
Potential Win: $143
Nashville at St. Louis (-175)
The Blues are very good at home.
Total Bet: $200
Potential Win: $114
Chicago (even) at San Jose
They are on the road but Chicago is one of the best offensive teams in the league. Should be a high scoring game.
Total Bet: $200
Potential Win: $200
New York at New Jersey UNDER 5 (-125)
Two future hall of fame goalies means scoring will be at a premium.
Total Bet: $200
Potential Win: $160
Pittsburgh (-140) at New York Islanders
The Penguins are starting to click and will be a factor all season.
Total Bet: $200
Potential Win: $143
Nashville at St. Louis (-175)
The Blues are very good at home.
Total Bet: $200
Potential Win: $114
Chicago (even) at San Jose
They are on the road but Chicago is one of the best offensive teams in the league. Should be a high scoring game.
Total Bet: $200
Potential Win: $200
Saturday, February 2, 2013
Live Blog Today
I was trying to think of a way to handicap today's race card at Santa Anita and still write about it. It's hard because I don't know what odds are yet and all that. So I figured I would just blog about it and update as I go. Gotta run to the track and get these picks in, I will also explain the format of the competition I am doing later.
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Race 1: #1 Misdeed, hopefully will get odds in the 5-1 range with a small chance to win, likely place.
This race only has a 5 horse field, with two favorites. One thing you have to realize with making these across the board wagers in advance is that you have to predict the odds. This isn't sports betting where odds are locked in. Misdeed is actually probably the 3rd favorite horse in here, but because the field is so small and the other two horses such huge favorites, even a win wont generate much of a return. My idea here is Misdeed finishes 3rd with an ok payoff which would still be better than a better horse taking 2nd(win both the place and show bets). However, if Misdeed can manage a small upset it would make for a nice start to the competition.
2nd Place : Misdeed
Wager $20 Across the Board.
Win: $84
Hot Damn. 6-1 odds
Races like this make me think I know what the hell I am doing sometimes. Misdeed stumbled a little outta the gate but it wouldn't have made a difference. Rode the inside the whole way and had a nice ride, predictably 2nd best.
Just an example why picking the favorite isn't always best, the winner across the board would pay $77 on $20.
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Alright I’m back and just in the nick of time, here’s how
this works. I am in a handicapping competition at a local track. You pick a
single horse for each race, the idea is you are placing a $20 “across the board”
wager. (That is a Win Bet, Show Bet, and Place Bet) I’ll mirror what I picked
on here with some extra bets and we’ll keep track along the way.
Here we go, about 15 minutes to the first race at Santa
Anita.
Race 1: #1 Misdeed, hopefully will get odds in the 5-1 range with a small chance to win, likely place.
This race only has a 5 horse field, with two favorites. One thing you have to realize with making these across the board wagers in advance is that you have to predict the odds. This isn't sports betting where odds are locked in. Misdeed is actually probably the 3rd favorite horse in here, but because the field is so small and the other two horses such huge favorites, even a win wont generate much of a return. My idea here is Misdeed finishes 3rd with an ok payoff which would still be better than a better horse taking 2nd(win both the place and show bets). However, if Misdeed can manage a small upset it would make for a nice start to the competition.
2nd Place : Misdeed
Wager $20 Across the Board.
Win: $84
Hot Damn. 6-1 odds
Races like this make me think I know what the hell I am doing sometimes. Misdeed stumbled a little outta the gate but it wouldn't have made a difference. Rode the inside the whole way and had a nice ride, predictably 2nd best.
Just an example why picking the favorite isn't always best, the winner across the board would pay $77 on $20.
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Race 2: #4 Drift King
Here is another example of taking a horse that is probably 2nd best, the clear favorite likely being Mr. Bossy Pants. However, while Mr. Bossy Pants will likely be favorite because he has raced against much more difficult competition in the past, the fact that the trainers have dropped him down to this Claiming $25k race worries me slightly. Drift King is also dropping in class, and was beaten by Mr. Bossy Pants last time out. Pretty good odds he will hit the board here, but I can’t say how high. Again, hoping for something in that 5-1 odds range.
Here is another example of taking a horse that is probably 2nd best, the clear favorite likely being Mr. Bossy Pants. However, while Mr. Bossy Pants will likely be favorite because he has raced against much more difficult competition in the past, the fact that the trainers have dropped him down to this Claiming $25k race worries me slightly. Drift King is also dropping in class, and was beaten by Mr. Bossy Pants last time out. Pretty good odds he will hit the board here, but I can’t say how high. Again, hoping for something in that 5-1 odds range.
2nd Place: Drift King
Wager $20 Across the Board
Win: $62
I didn’t get the odds I was expecting as Drift King went off as almost the favorite at 5-2. He got necked out by, you guessed it, Mr. Bossy Pants who went off the favorite at 2-1. Can't be upset as the race played out how I wanted. And because I threw down $4 on an exacta box that returned $17.20. Not a bad little hit.
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Wager $20 Across the Board
Win: $62
I didn’t get the odds I was expecting as Drift King went off as almost the favorite at 5-2. He got necked out by, you guessed it, Mr. Bossy Pants who went off the favorite at 2-1. Can't be upset as the race played out how I wanted. And because I threw down $4 on an exacta box that returned $17.20. Not a bad little hit.
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Race 3: #2 Red Man Run
This is a small time race compared to the two I just saw, a $20k Maiden Claimer that honestly is full of horses best described as “blah”. Red Man Run finished 3rd against a similar field last time out, but this race is a crap shoot. Good chance Red Man Run hits the board but I am not sure at what price.
This is a small time race compared to the two I just saw, a $20k Maiden Claimer that honestly is full of horses best described as “blah”. Red Man Run finished 3rd against a similar field last time out, but this race is a crap shoot. Good chance Red Man Run hits the board but I am not sure at what price.
2nd Place: Red Man Run
Wager: $20 Across the board
Win: $94
Got MUCH better odds than I was hoping at 5-1, plus I got another 2nd place, overall I am very pleased with this.
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Wager: $20 Across the board
Win: $94
Got MUCH better odds than I was hoping at 5-1, plus I got another 2nd place, overall I am very pleased with this.
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Race #4: He’s had Enough
Huge favorite in this race is Flashback, likely winner, but even more likely is how overbet this horse will be due to a huge win last time out. He’s had Enough is next best and I think it has a chance to actually win. The problem with this race is there is 4 horses in the field, that’s it. So there aren’t huge odds anywhere, just hope I don’t pick the one horse not in the money…
3rd Place: He's Had Enough
Wager $20 Across the board
Win: $0
Forgot to mention because it was a 4 horse field there were no "show" bets. I got nothing.
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Huge favorite in this race is Flashback, likely winner, but even more likely is how overbet this horse will be due to a huge win last time out. He’s had Enough is next best and I think it has a chance to actually win. The problem with this race is there is 4 horses in the field, that’s it. So there aren’t huge odds anywhere, just hope I don’t pick the one horse not in the money…
3rd Place: He's Had Enough
Wager $20 Across the board
Win: $0
Forgot to mention because it was a 4 horse field there were no "show" bets. I got nothing.
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Race #5: Magnificent Shirl
Likely the favorite, but I am going with it anyway. Race is filled with a lot of horses I don’t see better so there doesn’t seem to be any other way to go.
1st Place: Magnificent Shirl
Wager: $20 Across the Board
Win: $122
Hung back early and came back to win comfortably.
Likely the favorite, but I am going with it anyway. Race is filled with a lot of horses I don’t see better so there doesn’t seem to be any other way to go.
1st Place: Magnificent Shirl
Wager: $20 Across the Board
Win: $122
Hung back early and came back to win comfortably.
Thats the end of my live stuff for now, I will update later on how the rest of the card went, but so far, so good.
Wednesday, January 30, 2013
Soccer and Hockey
I'm going to try another parlay today, this time with some soccer and hockey. Not much analysis needed so I'll keep it short and sweet.
Copa del Rey
Barcelona (+115) at Real Madrid - The two biggest Spanish clubs face off in the first leg of the Copa semifinals. Barca is on the road, but look to have the much healthier lineup for today. These games are always exciting because they feature several of the top players in the world.
AND
Chicago (-135) at Minnesota - The Wild managed to squeak by Columbus last night while the Blackhawks were able to rest and watch. They might be the best team in hockey right now. Being favored on the road is tricky, but they will keep their hot start to the season alive.
Total Bet: $400
Potential Win: $1097
Copa del Rey
Barcelona (+115) at Real Madrid - The two biggest Spanish clubs face off in the first leg of the Copa semifinals. Barca is on the road, but look to have the much healthier lineup for today. These games are always exciting because they feature several of the top players in the world.
AND
Chicago (-135) at Minnesota - The Wild managed to squeak by Columbus last night while the Blackhawks were able to rest and watch. They might be the best team in hockey right now. Being favored on the road is tricky, but they will keep their hot start to the season alive.
Total Bet: $400
Potential Win: $1097
Tuesday, January 29, 2013
NHL Parlay
I'm not sure why but I'm going to try a 3-way parlay again. I'm going with 3 home teams that are all fairly big favorites. I'm not really going out on a limb, but that is why I'm putting them together in a parlay. Don't have time for much analysis so I'll make it quick.
Minnesota (-190) vs. Columbus - The Wild will bounce back against a bad team who had to travel the day of the game.
AND
Tampa Bay (-170) vs. Florida - The Lightning have the offensive potential to make this game a blowout.
AND
Detroit (-160) vs. Dallas - The Red Wings are one of the best home teams in sports over the last decade. The Stars lost to Columbus last night.
Total Bet: $400
Potential Win: $1175
Minnesota (-190) vs. Columbus - The Wild will bounce back against a bad team who had to travel the day of the game.
AND
Tampa Bay (-170) vs. Florida - The Lightning have the offensive potential to make this game a blowout.
AND
Detroit (-160) vs. Dallas - The Red Wings are one of the best home teams in sports over the last decade. The Stars lost to Columbus last night.
Total Bet: $400
Potential Win: $1175
Return to Winning Ways
Things have not been going well for me recently in the betting department. I see a good opportunity in tonight's Minnesota Wild matchup at home against Columbus to break that losing skid.
MN Wild (+155) -1.5
Columbus did get a victory at home last night against Dallas, but weren't able to fly to Minnesota after the game due to fog. They arrived in MN late morning which means they won't get a morning skate in, however that likely isn't a huge factor. Don't let the recent good showings by the Blue Jackets fool you, they aren't good. The Wild at home, with a couple days rest; verses a Columbus team playing back to backs and flying in day of. Obviously the straight up win is a more likely outcome but at -190 I just don't see any value in it, especially when I think the Wild will take the lead early and not look back. But I am prepared to be crossing fingers hoping for a possible empty netter in order to cover.
Bet: $200
Possible Win: $510
MN Wild (+155) -1.5
Columbus did get a victory at home last night against Dallas, but weren't able to fly to Minnesota after the game due to fog. They arrived in MN late morning which means they won't get a morning skate in, however that likely isn't a huge factor. Don't let the recent good showings by the Blue Jackets fool you, they aren't good. The Wild at home, with a couple days rest; verses a Columbus team playing back to backs and flying in day of. Obviously the straight up win is a more likely outcome but at -190 I just don't see any value in it, especially when I think the Wild will take the lead early and not look back. But I am prepared to be crossing fingers hoping for a possible empty netter in order to cover.
Bet: $200
Possible Win: $510
Monday, January 28, 2013
Don't Try This At Home
Alright I have to draw this up pretty quick because the match starts in about 30 minutes from the writing of this so try and follow along. Haven't had much time to look at sports betting in the past week as I gear up what I consider the beginning of horse racing season next weekend. So here goes nothing.
Exeter City WIN (-105) over Torquay United
I know what you are thinking.......never heard of these squads. And honestly, unless you are reading this from the U.K., or play ungodly amounts of FIFA '13 (raises hand), you wouldn't know these are two teams in the English League 2. That is 3 steps BELOW the Premier League. I do follow roughly enough to know that Torquay is not doing well, Exeter scores and are non loosers in their last 5. They get their leading scorer back from suspension, I'm throwing in $500.
BET: $500
Potential Win: $476
P.S. This wasn't available where we normally bet, I looked at all the major places taking action on this game and went with the average line which was 1.95. (-105 in the american form, we hate decimal systems)
Exeter City WIN (-105) over Torquay United
I know what you are thinking.......never heard of these squads. And honestly, unless you are reading this from the U.K., or play ungodly amounts of FIFA '13 (raises hand), you wouldn't know these are two teams in the English League 2. That is 3 steps BELOW the Premier League. I do follow roughly enough to know that Torquay is not doing well, Exeter scores and are non loosers in their last 5. They get their leading scorer back from suspension, I'm throwing in $500.
BET: $500
Potential Win: $476
P.S. This wasn't available where we normally bet, I looked at all the major places taking action on this game and went with the average line which was 1.95. (-105 in the american form, we hate decimal systems)
Saturday, January 26, 2013
UFC 6 on FOX Bets
Eric Koch -200 over Ricardo Lamas
Featherweights get very little attention, but this should be a very entertaining fight. Koch is an up and comer in the weight class, look for him to be able to end this fight
Bet: $50
Potential win: $25
Donald Cerrone +120 over Anthony Pettis
They say to stay away from emotion when betting, but it is very difficult to do in this fight. I'm a fan of The Cowboy Cerrone and I think he'll be able to last in this one. Pettis is a very dangerous fighter and usually doesn't go to the decision, but I think this will last all 3 rounds with Cerrone getting the decision.
Bet: $50
Potential win: $60
Quinton Jackson +260 over Glover Teixeira
Teixeira has only had 2 UFC fights, but ended them both in style. With that said, Jackson's ability on the ground and the huge odds make it hard to not take a chance on the underdog in this bout. He's a bit of a wild card for if he's gonna show up during the fight, I'm hoping for good things here.
Bet: $50
Potential win: $130
Demetrious Jackson -260 over John Dodson
Despite the odds, this should be a great matchup. Each fighter has great defenses against the other's strengths so I could see this title fight going the whole 5 rounds and that is the reason I am going with Jackson. His conditioning is impeccable and I look for him to retain his belt.
Bet: $50
Potential win: $19
Bankroll: $1050
Thursday, January 24, 2013
Australian Open
Maybe I'm getting desperate but I'm going to call it being creative. Since this is one of the major tennis tournaments I'm going to make two different bets on it. One for the men's side, and one for the women's.
Friday Men's Semifinals
Roger Federer (+120) over Andy Murray
These are two of the top tennis players in the world right now, and Federer may be the best ever. This should be a very entertaining match. Murray is 10-9 against Federer, but has never beaten him in a Grand Slam match. Federer knows how to play big on the big stage so I'm going with the veteran.
Total Bet: $200
Potential Win: $240
Saturday Women's Final
Victoria Azarenka (-145) over Li Na
I can't say that I'm a huge women's tennis fan, but I will watch it occasionally if it is a big tournament. Na has the head-to-head advantage 5-4, but I'm going with the favorite on this one.
Total Bet: $200
Potential Win: $138
Friday Men's Semifinals
Roger Federer (+120) over Andy Murray
These are two of the top tennis players in the world right now, and Federer may be the best ever. This should be a very entertaining match. Murray is 10-9 against Federer, but has never beaten him in a Grand Slam match. Federer knows how to play big on the big stage so I'm going with the veteran.
Total Bet: $200
Potential Win: $240
Saturday Women's Final
Victoria Azarenka (-145) over Li Na
I can't say that I'm a huge women's tennis fan, but I will watch it occasionally if it is a big tournament. Na has the head-to-head advantage 5-4, but I'm going with the favorite on this one.
Total Bet: $200
Potential Win: $138
Wednesday, January 23, 2013
NCAA Basketball
Butler +2.5 over LaSalle
This could be the bet that ruins the parlay, but it is too enticing to not take a chance on. This isn't the Butler team that went to the NCAA Championship game, but Brad Stevens is no slouch and has them playing extremely well as of late (13 game win streak). It looks like leading scorer Rontei Clarke won't be playing for the Bulldogs due to a sprained neck, but this isn't a 1 man team and should dispatch the Explorers on the road.
Duke -3 over Miami (FL)
It's hard to not like the #1 team in the nation to only have to cover 3 points. Yes, it is on the road and yes, this isn't your typical Hurricane's basketball team and yes, Ryan Kelly is still out with a bum foot. But with all that said, Duke comes to play and they rarely lose an ACC game. Look for Duke to jump out early and not look back.
Minnesota -9 over Northwestern
Typically I wouldn't be big on a 9 point spread, but I watched the first meeting between these two teams and the Gophers played absolutely horribly in the first half, they still won by 18 points. The Gophers are coming off of 2 consecutive Big 10 defeats, but even more of a reason for them to bounce back with a strong game against a very sub-par Wildcat squad.
Total bet: $150
Potential win: $900
Bankroll: $1250
Tuesday, January 22, 2013
More Hockey Bets
Last weekend was a little rough, looking to rebound with some weekly hockey bets. We're going to give the parlays a little break and stick to single game bets. Let's see if the new strategy will pay off.
Philadelphia (-105) at New Jersey
The Flyers are 0-2 right off the bat. They are hungry for a win and have way too much talent to not get it done tonight. I'm taking the Flyers.
Total Bet: $100
Potential Win: $95
Minnesota (-130) vs. Nashville
The Wild are looking good to start the season and had the day off yesterday. The Predators are coming off back-to-back shootout losses, including one late last night. I'm going with the home team off a day of rest and no travel.
Total Bet: $100
Potential Win: $77
San Jose at Edmonton OVER 5.5 Goals (+110)
This game features a lot of offensive talent and unproven goaltending. Both teams have potential superstars who can put up a lot of points. Should be an entertaining game.
Total Bet: $100
Potential Win: $110
Philadelphia (-105) at New Jersey
The Flyers are 0-2 right off the bat. They are hungry for a win and have way too much talent to not get it done tonight. I'm taking the Flyers.
Total Bet: $100
Potential Win: $95
Minnesota (-130) vs. Nashville
The Wild are looking good to start the season and had the day off yesterday. The Predators are coming off back-to-back shootout losses, including one late last night. I'm going with the home team off a day of rest and no travel.
Total Bet: $100
Potential Win: $77
San Jose at Edmonton OVER 5.5 Goals (+110)
This game features a lot of offensive talent and unproven goaltending. Both teams have potential superstars who can put up a lot of points. Should be an entertaining game.
Total Bet: $100
Potential Win: $110
Saturday, January 19, 2013
Hockey Is Back...Football Is Still Around
Since the NHL is finally ready to drop the puck that means it is time to place some hockey bets. Apparently this is also an important weekend in the NFL so we can't just ignore that. Here are my picks for this weekend's action:
NFL Money Line Parlay
New England (-360) and Atlanta (+170)
I can't get a good read on the spreads for these games so I'm going with the money line. I think the Patriots will win comfortably. I just can't go against Brady at home. Nobody is giving the Falcons a chance to win this game. For some reason I am. I think Kaepernick is overrated, no way he repeats what he did last week. The Falcons offense has enough firepower to win this game. It may come down to a last second play like last week, but I have faith the Falcons will get it done.
Total Bet: $100
Potential Win: $245
NHL Parlay
Chicago (-105) and Carolina (-105) and Minnesota/Colorado Over 5 goals (-130)
Chicago underwhelmed last year and has too much talent to not make some noise this year. Carolina added another Staal and Semin and that should help them score some goals this year. Minnesota and Colorado is a pretty decent rivalry game that features a lot of young offensive talent. I expect a high scoring game to start the season.
Total Bet: $100
Potential Win: $574
NHL Grand Salami (Total Goals Scored in All NHL Games) UNDER 72
I have never seen this bet before but it is very intriguing. There may be some sloppy play to begin the season and I think most teams will play a safer and defensive style. That is why I am taking the under on 72 goals scored for the day.
Total Bet: $100
Potential Win: $91
That is it for this weekend, good luck on your plays.
NFL Money Line Parlay
New England (-360) and Atlanta (+170)
I can't get a good read on the spreads for these games so I'm going with the money line. I think the Patriots will win comfortably. I just can't go against Brady at home. Nobody is giving the Falcons a chance to win this game. For some reason I am. I think Kaepernick is overrated, no way he repeats what he did last week. The Falcons offense has enough firepower to win this game. It may come down to a last second play like last week, but I have faith the Falcons will get it done.
Total Bet: $100
Potential Win: $245
NHL Parlay
Chicago (-105) and Carolina (-105) and Minnesota/Colorado Over 5 goals (-130)
Chicago underwhelmed last year and has too much talent to not make some noise this year. Carolina added another Staal and Semin and that should help them score some goals this year. Minnesota and Colorado is a pretty decent rivalry game that features a lot of young offensive talent. I expect a high scoring game to start the season.
Total Bet: $100
Potential Win: $574
NHL Grand Salami (Total Goals Scored in All NHL Games) UNDER 72
I have never seen this bet before but it is very intriguing. There may be some sloppy play to begin the season and I think most teams will play a safer and defensive style. That is why I am taking the under on 72 goals scored for the day.
Total Bet: $100
Potential Win: $91
That is it for this weekend, good luck on your plays.
Saturday, January 12, 2013
Wagering Some Football and Futball
OK, so last week didn’t work out so well….or at all. As a result
I WAS going to dial back the crazy just a little bit and place two separate wagers,
but I just couldn’t help myself so I parlayed 3 together (again).
Manchester United WIN (-125)
First, an English Premier League matchup that I don’t think
will be nearly as close as the odds are suggesting. Manchester United verses
Liverpool at Old Trafford. Man U will be
without their marquee striker Rooney, but I don’t think it will hinder the Red
Devils as much as betters think. Robin
Van Persie has 16 goals so far this year and I believe he tags on another one
in this matchup. Finally, while Liverpool has been in good form recently, they haven’t
won at Old Trafford in four years. Worried for a draw, but think Man U comes
out on top 2-1.
Denver Broncos (-9) AND the over 44.5
I won’t give too much analysis on this game only because I
don’t think it’s needed. I think the
Ravens are emotionally (and likely physically) spent from last week’s win over
the Bengals, and they travel to Denver to play what I believe is the best team
in football. The Broncos have
methodically beaten down opponents so consistently over the 2nd half
of the season that people hardly talk about it anymore. I think the over is a
hands down lock, but a spread of 9 points is always a little bit to worry about, even with the expected beat down I think Manning will deliver on Saturday.
Wager $300
possible win: $1,668
possible win: $1,668
NFL Divisional Bet
After getting shut out the last two weeks, I've decided to simplify my bet and not get quite as crazy with it. I like both Denver & New England to win this week, but 9 point spreads are too big to mess around with in the playoffs. With that said, I'm going to go with a $300 2-way parlay:
Falcons -2.5
The Seahawks bandwagon seems to be doubling in size every week, but I just don't see the appeal. They are going up against a very good Atlanta team at home where the speed and skill of their offense is on display. Seattle's defense will be able to keep it close, but when I say close I mean within 2 touchdowns. Atlanta wins this game easily.
Packers M/L
If history has proved anything over the last few years, it's that you need a QB to win in the playoffs and because of that, I'm seeing good things for Green Bay. San Francisco is starting a rookie QB who can't throw very well, that doesn't equal victory. Aaron Rodgers has been here before and knows what it takes to get to the Super Bowl. I have great faith in the Packers to win this game.
Total bet: $300
Potential win: $910
Bankroll: $1400
UPDATE: A total loss. Packers looked completely overmatched and Falcons missed out by .5 point
UPDATE: A total loss. Packers looked completely overmatched and Falcons missed out by .5 point
Saturday, January 5, 2013
Wildcard Bet
Alright, here goes nothing. There are a couple of large
spreads that are very attractive bets in this NFL Wildcard week, so my decision
was to parley the two into what will hopefully be a nice little score.
Minnesota +8
This line opened up at +9.5 which is huge for ANY NFL game,
let alone one where the team beat their opponent last week. I know the game is at
Lambeau, but the weather looks to be cold and I expect the Vikings to control
most of the game with AP. The only worry with this is Christian Ponder is
questionable, I expect him to play BUT if he doesn’t this bet could be
ugly. I still expect the Vikings to be
within a touchdown in this game.
Indianapolis +7
I don’t expect this to be a high scoring game, and the
Ravens have not looked anything like the playoff teams of the past. The Baltimore defense will probably play
inspired with the pending retirement of Ray Lewis, but I think Andrew Luck and the
Colts will put up enough of a fight to stay within a touchdown. (My guess is
lose by 3)
The Ponder question mark is the only reason why I’m not
betting more in this situation.
Total Bet: $200
Potential Win: $514
Potential Win: $514
UPDATE: In the time I wrote this the MN spread bumped up to
+9.5 but I’ll still go with the +8. The recent news that Ponder has been
downgraded to questionable likely means some large players are moving some BIG
money onto the Packers to beat the spread.
Friday, January 4, 2013
NFL Wildcard Bets
Houston -4.5 pts
The Texans will open up their offense and put away the Bengals early and easily in this matchup. I don't think Cincinnati will be able to keep up with Houston on either side of the ball. Highly confident in this game.
Colts/Ravens under 47 pts
Not as high on this pick, but I do think emotion plays a factor in this game. With Ray Lewis announcing his retirement following the season, Baltimore's defense comes to play and shuts down Andrew Luck. I don't see the Ravens offense putting up a lot of points, so I'm going with a low scoring affair.
Washington M/L
This is the big wildcard in the bet. I haven't been on the RGIII bandwagon all year, but I'm even more against the Russell Wilson experiment when he's playing outside of Seattle. The Redskins have the more talented team and I think they'll win this one and I'm punting the 3 points that the odds makers are offering.
Total bet: $200
Potential win: $1440
Bankroll: $1700
UPDATE: Looking good going into the final wild card game, then RGIII went down and any hope at a big payout went down the drain.
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